Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 10:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

31 Dec 2023 10 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	127 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (03 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	63 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	127 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

63 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	63	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
	1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 38.3
	1	31 Dec 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	38	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	33	-20.4, 39

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Tamotamo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 03 Jan 2024 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 04 Jan 2024 16:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.